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'Global Trends to 2035' Geo-politics and international power

20-09-2017

This study considers eight economic, societal, and political global trends that will shape the world to 2035, namely an ageing population, fragile globalisation, a technological revolution, climate change, shifting power relations, new areas of state competition, politics of the information age and ecological threats. It first examines how they may affect some of the fundamental assumptions of the international system. Then it considers four scenarios based on two factors: an unstable or stable Europe ...

This study considers eight economic, societal, and political global trends that will shape the world to 2035, namely an ageing population, fragile globalisation, a technological revolution, climate change, shifting power relations, new areas of state competition, politics of the information age and ecological threats. It first examines how they may affect some of the fundamental assumptions of the international system. Then it considers four scenarios based on two factors: an unstable or stable Europe and world. Finally, it presents policy options for the EU to address the challenges created by these trends.

Cyber defence in the EU: Preparing for cyber warfare?

29-10-2014

In recent years, cyber attacks on a serious scale have become a matter of concern to states, due to the threat they can pose to national security, but also a potential foreign policy and military tool to be added to existing options in their arsenals.

In recent years, cyber attacks on a serious scale have become a matter of concern to states, due to the threat they can pose to national security, but also a potential foreign policy and military tool to be added to existing options in their arsenals.

Strasbourg-Lisbon-Chicago: NATO Quo Vadis?

19-08-2013

The past three summits of NATO in Strasbourg / Kehl (2009), Lisbon (2010) and Chicago (2012) have addressed rather turbulent developments in the alliance's strategic environment, requiring it to adapt to new situations faster than ever before. NATO's structures have been revised several times, and from the 16 headquarters with 20 000 staff in the 1990s only 7 will survive, with less than 9 000 staff. Territorial defence, once key element of NATO's defence posture, will mainly consist of missile and ...

The past three summits of NATO in Strasbourg / Kehl (2009), Lisbon (2010) and Chicago (2012) have addressed rather turbulent developments in the alliance's strategic environment, requiring it to adapt to new situations faster than ever before. NATO's structures have been revised several times, and from the 16 headquarters with 20 000 staff in the 1990s only 7 will survive, with less than 9 000 staff. Territorial defence, once key element of NATO's defence posture, will mainly consist of missile and cyber defence, and - perhaps - critical infrastructure protection. So far, NATO has become much more focused on sustainable high-end operations abroad, but the perspective of more such action is rather unlikely. With the financial crisis and the concentration of the US on its security interests on their pacific coast, the European allies are required to do more for European security. Previous such attempts in the 1990s 'drowned' during the war on terror; NATO and the EU now need to emerge in a true and mutually benefiting cooperation. With the arrival of the Lisbon treaty abolishing the pillar divides between the security and defence policy and the other Union policies, the EU can play its security role thoroughly. The Treaty on European Union requires the 'progressive framing of common Union defence policy'. This process, however, is all but well underway. It is unclear if the forthcoming European Council on defence matters in December 2013 will put this issue on its strategic agenda. The model of NATO, on which the EU treaties are based since Maastricht and Amsterdam, refers to a NATO that has significantly changed since. This is why reflecting on this matter becomes more important than ever before.

Missile Defence in Europe: Strategic, Political and Industrial Implications

20-05-2011

Since the original announcement made by former U.S. president George W. Bush to build Ballistic Missile Defence(BMD)’s third pillar in Central Europe, BMD has become a widely discussed and contested issue. President Obama’s review of the U.S. system (2009) paved the way for the construction of a multilayered system as a NATO capability which was endorsed by the Alliance at the Lisbon Summit (2010). Although the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) system proposed by the Obama administration is ...

Since the original announcement made by former U.S. president George W. Bush to build Ballistic Missile Defence(BMD)’s third pillar in Central Europe, BMD has become a widely discussed and contested issue. President Obama’s review of the U.S. system (2009) paved the way for the construction of a multilayered system as a NATO capability which was endorsed by the Alliance at the Lisbon Summit (2010). Although the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) system proposed by the Obama administration is different from the original U.S. plans, it is now to be incorporated within NATO's Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) architecture and, in addition, Russia has now been invited to participate. However, there are still a number of outstanding questions. This expert study investigates three dimensions of missile defence in Europe, placing the project in its proper strategic context, inquiring into its political implications and finally it assesses the industrial opportunities and challenges. The authors introduce three modalities of deterrence, the logic underlying each of them and the roles for missile defence (both territorial and theatre) in each case. The modalities identified are (1) the renewed strategic deterrence between the USA and Russia, (2) the deterrence of third states in reaction to their asymmetric nuclear threat, and (3) the reverse deterrence from intervention in regional conflicts. Taking into account the EU’s securitization of ballistic missile proliferation, the new CSDP provisions of the Lisbon Treaty (especially the mutual assistance clause), strained EUNATO relations, as well as the political, economic, technological and industrial benefits of Europe’s increased participation, this study argues in favour of an EU role in missile defence that would facilitate Europe’s common action. It also identifies the European Defence Agency (EDA) as an institution that could enhance cooperation in this area. Pointing out U.S. techn

Autor externo

Nik HYNEK (Research Leader, Centre for International Security of the Institute of International Relations - IIR, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC and Metropolitan University, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC), Vit STRITECKY (Institute of International Relations, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC, Centre for International Security and Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC) and Ondrej DITRYCH (Institute of International Relations, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC and Centre for International Security)

Space Policy and the European Security and Defence Policy

03-04-2008

On 14 February 2008 the Policy Department in DG EXPO organised a Workshop on behalf of the Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE). The large participation and interest from within and outside the European Parliament confirmed the usefulness of the Workshop format and event. The Workshop provided an occasion to focus upon a report being developed by the SEDE Chairman Karl von Wogau on ESDP and Space Policy. The substance of the Workshop followed the central themes of the SEDE report and provided ...

On 14 February 2008 the Policy Department in DG EXPO organised a Workshop on behalf of the Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE). The large participation and interest from within and outside the European Parliament confirmed the usefulness of the Workshop format and event. The Workshop provided an occasion to focus upon a report being developed by the SEDE Chairman Karl von Wogau on ESDP and Space Policy. The substance of the Workshop followed the central themes of the SEDE report and provided an opportunity for the Rapporteur and key Members of the European Parliament to exchange views on technological and policy developments in the European space sector and the relevance and impact on European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The first part of the workshop focussed upon strategic context and the use of satellites for security purposes. The second part of the workshop focussed more on the European economic and defence industrial framework for developing space assets and in particular on the question of the "Cost of Non-Europe in the field of satellite-based systems". This also provided the occasion for the author of a study commissioned by SEDE to present the key findings. This Workshop Summary provides an overview on the issues raised during the Workshop. It is not intended as a verbatim reproduction of the event. The summary and programme is used as a means to disseminate the Workshop presentations which should be useful to those interested in the details of the presentations as well as those who were unable to attend.

Autor externo

Joanna Popielawska and Jan Michael Deuter

International Transfers of Dual-Use Technologies - COCOM and the European Community

01-10-1993

This study is intended as a contribution to the debate on various aspects relating to COCOM, particularly the question of whether, in its present form, the organisation is capable of adjusting to a world in which East-West relations are no longer the main concern.

This study is intended as a contribution to the debate on various aspects relating to COCOM, particularly the question of whether, in its present form, the organisation is capable of adjusting to a world in which East-West relations are no longer the main concern.

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