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Key Macroeconomic Indicators in the Euro Area and the United States

18-11-2020

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

18-11-2020

The outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis has triggered a new wave of uncertainty, which may amplify the negative effect of the crisis. Based on several uncertainty measures, we show that inflation in the euro area is negatively affected by higher uncertainty. However, uncertainty does not impair the transmission of monetary policy. Consequently, the ECB should consider uncertainty in its reaction function in order to fulfil its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, ...

The outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis has triggered a new wave of uncertainty, which may amplify the negative effect of the crisis. Based on several uncertainty measures, we show that inflation in the euro area is negatively affected by higher uncertainty. However, uncertainty does not impair the transmission of monetary policy. Consequently, the ECB should consider uncertainty in its reaction function in order to fulfil its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autor extern

Christophe BLOT, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE

Rethinking Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Post-COVID Euro Area

18-11-2020

In the post-COVID environment, the ECB might face many and related trade-offs associated with the risk of being dominated by policy concerns other than price stability. Most of these risks could be reduced by a revision of the euro area governance framework, the creation of a new mechanism to provide financial assistance, and the implementation of a one-off intervention to reduce the exposure of the Eurosystem towards the euro area sovereign debts. This document was provided by the Policy Department ...

In the post-COVID environment, the ECB might face many and related trade-offs associated with the risk of being dominated by policy concerns other than price stability. Most of these risks could be reduced by a revision of the euro area governance framework, the creation of a new mechanism to provide financial assistance, and the implementation of a one-off intervention to reduce the exposure of the Eurosystem towards the euro area sovereign debts. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autor extern

Luigi BONATTI, Andrea FRACASSO, Roberto TAMBORINI

Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

18-11-2020

Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising ...

Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising further and probably contained its adverse economic effects. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autor extern

Atanas PEKANOV, Stefan SCHIMAN

Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID-19, or How Uncertainty is Here to Stay

18-11-2020

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. We explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces. Confidence in ECB actions will come from the contingency scenarios it considers and communicates on, and from the adoption of potential policies for a wide range of such scenarios. Greater clarity around the ECB’s inflation target and surrounding tolerance bands would also ...

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. We explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces. Confidence in ECB actions will come from the contingency scenarios it considers and communicates on, and from the adoption of potential policies for a wide range of such scenarios. Greater clarity around the ECB’s inflation target and surrounding tolerance bands would also be beneficial. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autor extern

Maria DEMERTZIS, Marta DOMINGUEZ-JIMENEZ

Effects of Pandemic-Induced Uncertainty on Monetary Policy

09-11-2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has fuelled a significant or even, according to some measures, unprecedented increase in economic uncertainty. For central banks, such uncertainty makes effective calibration of monetary policy challenging. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, presenting the different measures used as proxies of uncertainty and evaluating the effects of the current pandemic-induced uncertainty on economic outcomes in the euro area, in particular on inflation ...

The COVID-19 pandemic has fuelled a significant or even, according to some measures, unprecedented increase in economic uncertainty. For central banks, such uncertainty makes effective calibration of monetary policy challenging. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, presenting the different measures used as proxies of uncertainty and evaluating the effects of the current pandemic-induced uncertainty on economic outcomes in the euro area, in particular on inflation. This publication is prepared by Policy Department A for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Lagarde on 19 November 2020.

Autor extern

Maria Demertzis, Marta DOMINGUEZ-JIMENEZ, Pierpaolo BENIGNO, Paolo CANOFARI, Giovanni DI BARTOLOMEO, Marcello MESSORI, Atanas PEKANOV, Stefan SCHIMAN, Christophe BLOT, Paul HUBERT and Fabien LABONDANCE

Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

23-10-2020

This note provides a comparison of some key macroeconomic forecast indicators for the Euro Area as a whole published by the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This note provides a comparison of some key macroeconomic forecast indicators for the Euro Area as a whole published by the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes: Effectiveness, Risks, Alternatives

30-09-2020

We summarise the empirical evidence on effects of asset purchases in the euro area, including the PEPP programme launched in response to the COVID-19 crisis. We conclude that QE is particularly effective during times of high financial stress, i.e. at the peak of a crisis, but tends to lose impact over time. At the same time, QE policies come with prominent risks which may materialise only in the longer term. We suggest a scheme of rule-based intervention in sovereign debt markets that preserves the ...

We summarise the empirical evidence on effects of asset purchases in the euro area, including the PEPP programme launched in response to the COVID-19 crisis. We conclude that QE is particularly effective during times of high financial stress, i.e. at the peak of a crisis, but tends to lose impact over time. At the same time, QE policies come with prominent risks which may materialise only in the longer term. We suggest a scheme of rule-based intervention in sovereign debt markets that preserves the role of yield spreads as a market signal, while containing the risk of bad equilibria. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Autor extern

Joscha BECKMANN, Salomon FIEDLER, Klaus-Jürgen GERN, Stefan KOOTHS, Josefine QUAST, Maik WOLTERS

APP vs PEPP: Similar, But With Different Rationales

30-09-2020

ECB’s asset purchase programmes have been implemented at different times in different economic environments and may pursue different objectives. From the point of view of removing financial fragmentation and taming sovereign stress in the euro area, the PEPP has been successful so far. Moreover, this outcome was obtained without fully using its potential resources. To date and contingent on the available set of information, the current monetary stance has not gone too far and it retains some ammunitions ...

ECB’s asset purchase programmes have been implemented at different times in different economic environments and may pursue different objectives. From the point of view of removing financial fragmentation and taming sovereign stress in the euro area, the PEPP has been successful so far. Moreover, this outcome was obtained without fully using its potential resources. To date and contingent on the available set of information, the current monetary stance has not gone too far and it retains some ammunitions. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Autor extern

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL and Paul HUBERT

Independence with Weak Accountability: The Swiss Case

29-09-2020

The Swiss National Bank is highly independent but weakly accountable. Weak accountability is rooted in the formal legislation on central banking but also in the reputation of the Bank, which is unanimously considered as highly successful. The ECB too is highly independent and weakly accountable but it faces diverse public opinions whose views differ across countries. Buttressing ECB accountability is important, therefore, and the European Parliament should consider strengthening the Monetary Dialogue ...

The Swiss National Bank is highly independent but weakly accountable. Weak accountability is rooted in the formal legislation on central banking but also in the reputation of the Bank, which is unanimously considered as highly successful. The ECB too is highly independent and weakly accountable but it faces diverse public opinions whose views differ across countries. Buttressing ECB accountability is important, therefore, and the European Parliament should consider strengthening the Monetary Dialogue. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Autor extern

Charles WYPLOSZ

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