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This study discusses recent and current conditions relating to financial stability in the euro area, develops, in particular, on the impact of the current ‘inflation crisis’ on financial stability vulnerabilities, and addresses two related priorities for the Single Resolution Board (SRB).

This paper points to new multifaceted and often interconnected sources of risks (including high-impact tail risks) and the challenges posed to supervisory actions. It also makes the important case that traditional risk management tools might face limitations in the current situation. We discuss both geopolitical and related risks as well as other risks in the context of rising interest rates and a volatile macroeconomic environment. The challenge for banks will be to be prepared for such extreme ...

Markets in crypto-assets (MiCA)

Briefing 29-11-2022

The European Parliament will shortly vote on adopting the regulation on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA). The regulation would establish harmonised rules for crypto-assets at EU level, thereby providing legal certainty for crypto-assets not covered by existing EU legislation. By enhancing the protection of consumers and investors as well as financial stability, the regulation promotes innovation and use of crypto-assets. The regulation identifies and covers three types of crypto-assets, namely asset-referenced ...

This note is prepared in view of a public hearing with the Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board, Andrea Enria, scheduled for 1 December 2022.

The Banking Union will likely face several risks in the near future, ranging from geopolitical risks to shadow banking risks and the phasing out of Covid-19 support. Such risks might also affect the Single Resolution Board and its priorities. This paper discusses the key short-term risks and analyses how the SRB can be impacted regarding resolution planning, the failing or likely to fail determination, public interest assessment and resolution action.

While greater inflation may have led to some positive “first-round” effects for banks, several negative “second-round” impacts may occur, including: i) an increase in credit risk, affecting both families and companies, especially “heavy energy users”; ii) a drop in the value of fixed-rate assets held by lenders, including sovereign bonds; iii) liquidity pressures due to the ECB’s recent decision to increase the cost of its outstanding 3-year facilities and to greater competition for retail deposits ...

This note is prepared in view of a public hearing with the Chair of the Single Resolution Board (SRB), Elke König, scheduled for 30 November 2022.

Geopolitical risk will increasingly confront EU banks and their supervisors in the coming years. This paper assesses four specific manifestations of this type of risk and the related banking vulnerabilities and proposes new or modified priorities for European Central Bank banking supervision.

Global factors and ECB monetary policy

Hĺbková analýza 28-11-2022

The euro area’s current high inflation rate is due to both internally generated demand pressures and external shocks that have raised food and energy prices. This paper argues that the latter element is more important than the former. Central banks need to tighten monetary policy to address high inflation but, with central banks around the world under pressure to restore their anti-inflationary credentials, it is possible that there is going to be too much tightening of global financial conditions ...

The dispersion of inflation rates within the euro area tends to increase in times of very strong energy price increases. A small part of this divergence is due to fiscal policy measures implemented by member states and aimed at dampening the energy price increase. The monetary policy response of an inflation targeting central bank to adverse supply shocks depends on the nature of the shock (demand or supply driven, temporary or permanent) and on the credibility of the central bank's commitment to ...