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A framework for foresight intelligence - Part 2: Online stakeholder engagement

25-11-2021

The second part of the STOA study, 'A framework for technology foresight intelligence', this report deals with horizon stakeholder engagement for the strategic and practical purposes of the STOA Panel's activities. It analyses online engagement methods and tools and their suitability for brainstorming meetings, and for technology assessment and foresight projects. To gain insight and experience in the use of online methods and tools for engagement, these were implemented in one ongoing STOA project ...

The second part of the STOA study, 'A framework for technology foresight intelligence', this report deals with horizon stakeholder engagement for the strategic and practical purposes of the STOA Panel's activities. It analyses online engagement methods and tools and their suitability for brainstorming meetings, and for technology assessment and foresight projects. To gain insight and experience in the use of online methods and tools for engagement, these were implemented in one ongoing STOA project. For this purpose, STOA selected a typical foresight study, investigating a complex issue that is the subject of controversy: gene-editing techniques for the future of farming in Europe. Experts from the Danish Board of Technology Foundation guided the STOA team in setting up and running the procedure for this project. This paper assesses the efficiency of online alternatives for foresight brainstorming meetings with colleagues, MEPs, experts and selected stakeholders. These alternatives include traditional surveys (to ascertain societal concerns about possible future technological developments) and simple variants of Delphi-type surveys.

The European Parliament's investigative powers: Committees of inquiry in context

10-11-2021

The European Parliament has been trying to strengthen its powers to conduct in-depth investigations into contraventions or maladministration in the implementation of Union law since 2012, but has so far failed to gain the consent of the Commission or Council for the modification of the legal framework applicable to its committees of inquiry. These powers may also be discussed as part of the Conference on the future of Europe. Analysing the scope and functioning of Parliament's committees of inquiry ...

The European Parliament has been trying to strengthen its powers to conduct in-depth investigations into contraventions or maladministration in the implementation of Union law since 2012, but has so far failed to gain the consent of the Commission or Council for the modification of the legal framework applicable to its committees of inquiry. These powers may also be discussed as part of the Conference on the future of Europe. Analysing the scope and functioning of Parliament's committees of inquiry, this publication offers an insight into the controversy surrounding the negotiations concerning Parliament's proposal for a new regulation on the right of inquiry.

The ECB's New Definition of Price Stability: Better but Short of Specifics

03-11-2021

The new definition of price stability is a step in the right direction, even though the ECB could have gone further toward the Fed's average inflation targeting. This definition can become most helpful as the central bank navigates new uncertainties. Yet, the review does not deal with some daunting challenges that are already visible. It will need more than a few principles about price stability to deal with such issues as high and rising public debts, financial stability, or climate change. This ...

The new definition of price stability is a step in the right direction, even though the ECB could have gone further toward the Fed's average inflation targeting. This definition can become most helpful as the central bank navigates new uncertainties. Yet, the review does not deal with some daunting challenges that are already visible. It will need more than a few principles about price stability to deal with such issues as high and rising public debts, financial stability, or climate change. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 November 2021.

Externý autor

Charles WYPLOSZ

The Implementation and Rationale of the ECB's New Inflation Target

03-11-2021

In July 2021, the ECB's target was revised, specifying that the 2 % inflation rate threshold should be applied symmetrically and with a medium-term orientation. We argue that a symmetric inflation target can significantly contribute to anchoring inflation expectations and to limiting the risks due to the zero- and/or effective-lower bound constraints. The monetary policy strategy revision will play a key role in the policy mix between fiscal and monetary policies for the post-pandemic recovery. ...

In July 2021, the ECB's target was revised, specifying that the 2 % inflation rate threshold should be applied symmetrically and with a medium-term orientation. We argue that a symmetric inflation target can significantly contribute to anchoring inflation expectations and to limiting the risks due to the zero- and/or effective-lower bound constraints. The monetary policy strategy revision will play a key role in the policy mix between fiscal and monetary policies for the post-pandemic recovery. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 November 2021.

Externý autor

Pierpaolo BENIGNO, Paolo CANOFARI, Giovanni DI BARTOLOMEO and Marcello MESSORI

A Welcome Revision Rather Than a Revolution

03-11-2021

This contribution is a preliminary analysis of the effect of the ECB's new strategy, notably the revised inflation target, on inflation expectations. We show that the announcement of the new strategy, although necessary for several reasons, had a minor effect on inflation expectations. This reveals that the reform was either already partially anticipated by the market or too timid. Therefore, we present alternative outcomes of the strategy review. This paper was provided by the Policy Department ...

This contribution is a preliminary analysis of the effect of the ECB's new strategy, notably the revised inflation target, on inflation expectations. We show that the announcement of the new strategy, although necessary for several reasons, had a minor effect on inflation expectations. This reveals that the reform was either already partially anticipated by the market or too timid. Therefore, we present alternative outcomes of the strategy review. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 November 2021.

Externý autor

Christophe BLOT, Caroline BOZOU and Jérôme CREEL

The New Euro Area Inflation Indicator and Target: The Right Reset?

03-11-2021

This paper clarifies the main features of the European Central Bank's revised inflation target in light of international practices, discusses the role of financial stability in the medium-term orientation of monetary policy decisions, and quantifies the possible impacts of the inclusion of the costs related to owner-occupied housing on the inflation indicator which is subject to the inflation target. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life ...

This paper clarifies the main features of the European Central Bank's revised inflation target in light of international practices, discusses the role of financial stability in the medium-term orientation of monetary policy decisions, and quantifies the possible impacts of the inclusion of the costs related to owner-occupied housing on the inflation indicator which is subject to the inflation target. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 November 2021.

Externý autor

Zsolt DARVAS and Catarina MARTINS

Recovery and Resilience Plans: stakeholders’ involvement

29-10-2021

Based on the Commission assessments of national Recovery and Resilience Plans, this paper provides an overview of the overall involvement of stakeholders in the national recovery and resilience plans. In view of supporting the scrutiny of the implementation of the national plans, the paper also makes references to some positions and assessments by EU level stakeholders and other relevant institutions and bodies, including specific monitoring activities by think tanks and civil society organisations ...

Based on the Commission assessments of national Recovery and Resilience Plans, this paper provides an overview of the overall involvement of stakeholders in the national recovery and resilience plans. In view of supporting the scrutiny of the implementation of the national plans, the paper also makes references to some positions and assessments by EU level stakeholders and other relevant institutions and bodies, including specific monitoring activities by think tanks and civil society organisations. The paper will be regularly updated.

Housing and the Cost of Living

29-10-2021

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which constitutes the sole official measure of inflation in the euro area, leaves out an important part of household expenditure, namely the cost of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Most other developed economies include estimates of OOH in their consumer price index. The existing, even if imperfect, indicator available today from Eurostat should be included immediately in the HICP. It is unacceptable that Eurostat and the Commission have not been able ...

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which constitutes the sole official measure of inflation in the euro area, leaves out an important part of household expenditure, namely the cost of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Most other developed economies include estimates of OOH in their consumer price index. The existing, even if imperfect, indicator available today from Eurostat should be included immediately in the HICP. It is unacceptable that Eurostat and the Commission have not been able to produce a better OOH indicator in the 18 years since the ECB first flagged the importance of housing costs in 2003. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 November 2021.

Externý autor

Daniel GROS and Farzaneh SHAMSFAKHR

How should housing be treated in the HICP?

29-10-2021

The ECB has approved a plan to include a measure of the cost of owner-occupied housing in the HICP. This paper reviews the various methodologies that are used to incorporate this element into consumer price indices. It recommends the use of a rental equivalence approach rather than the net acquisitions approach currently used in Eurostat’s experimental price index of owner-occupied housing. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at ...

The ECB has approved a plan to include a measure of the cost of owner-occupied housing in the HICP. This paper reviews the various methodologies that are used to incorporate this element into consumer price indices. It recommends the use of a rental equivalence approach rather than the net acquisitions approach currently used in Eurostat’s experimental price index of owner-occupied housing. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 November 2021.

Externý autor

Karl WHELAN

Owner-Occupied Housing Costs and Monetary Policy: Goals and Challenges for the Euro Area

29-10-2021

Owner-occupied housing costs represent an important expenditure for households and should be included in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Conceptual and practical challenges must be resolved before this can be implemented. Estimates suggest that these costs would have a small impact on monetary policy. At the same time, different degrees of home ownership in the euro area mean that their inclusion may affect countries differently. Significant complementarity with other EU policies, like financial ...

Owner-occupied housing costs represent an important expenditure for households and should be included in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Conceptual and practical challenges must be resolved before this can be implemented. Estimates suggest that these costs would have a small impact on monetary policy. At the same time, different degrees of home ownership in the euro area mean that their inclusion may affect countries differently. Significant complementarity with other EU policies, like financial stability, are unlikely to materialise. This paper was provided by the Policy De