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Post-COVID-19 Global Currency Order: Risks and Opportunities for the Euro

22-09-2020

The issuance of EU debt in the context of the recovery plan for Europe creates scope for strengthening the international role of the euro. However, with a large share of safe euro assets likely to be absorbed by the pandemic emergency purchase programme of the ECB, a shortage of eligible bonds stands to impede such progress. The ECB could decisively increase the supply of safe assets by issuing tradable ECB certificates of deposit as a way of overcoming this obstacle. This document was provided ...

The issuance of EU debt in the context of the recovery plan for Europe creates scope for strengthening the international role of the euro. However, with a large share of safe euro assets likely to be absorbed by the pandemic emergency purchase programme of the ECB, a shortage of eligible bonds stands to impede such progress. The ECB could decisively increase the supply of safe assets by issuing tradable ECB certificates of deposit as a way of overcoming this obstacle. This document was provided by Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Externý autor

Barry EICHENGREEN, Daniel GROS

Rising long-term interest rates: Is the European bond market overshooting?

15-05-2017

We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment spending, debt service costs and shrinking fiscal space. The recommendation for the ECB is not to react till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis. There is also the worry that rising/overshooting interest often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed: larger in some places, but offset by their absence elsewhere. That is a matter for domestic policy ...

We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment spending, debt service costs and shrinking fiscal space. The recommendation for the ECB is not to react till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis. There is also the worry that rising/overshooting interest often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed: larger in some places, but offset by their absence elsewhere. That is a matter for domestic policy, not ECB policy.

Externý autor

Andrew HUGHES HALLETT (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

Are European bond markets overshooting?

15-05-2017

We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.

We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.

Externý autor

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE (OFCE)

Debt Sustainability and Economic Convergence of Euro-Area Member States: Challenges and Solutions (Paolo Mauro)

23-02-2015

The Eurozone is at risk of economic stagnation and the crisis has led to the most pervasive and pronounced increase in government debt-to-GDP ratios since the Second World War. Member countries are facing vastly differing economic growth rates, with some displaying hardly any recovery since the crisis began. This note puts forward proposals aimed at fostering economic convergence while ensuring debt sustainability for the member states.

The Eurozone is at risk of economic stagnation and the crisis has led to the most pervasive and pronounced increase in government debt-to-GDP ratios since the Second World War. Member countries are facing vastly differing economic growth rates, with some displaying hardly any recovery since the crisis began. This note puts forward proposals aimed at fostering economic convergence while ensuring debt sustainability for the member states.

Externý autor

Paolo Mauro

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Market Fragmentation in the Euro Area, Monetary Dialogue, November 2014

14-11-2014

In this compilation of notes, key monetary policy experts analyse financial markets fragmentation in the euro area, comment on the role and constraints of the ECB in addressing problems in specific market segments/sectors/countries at challenging times for (conventional) monetary policy, assess whether the measures so far taken have achieved the envisaged objectives and consider whether additional unconventional monetary measures shall be envisaged as the economic recovery is losing momentum. The ...

In this compilation of notes, key monetary policy experts analyse financial markets fragmentation in the euro area, comment on the role and constraints of the ECB in addressing problems in specific market segments/sectors/countries at challenging times for (conventional) monetary policy, assess whether the measures so far taken have achieved the envisaged objectives and consider whether additional unconventional monetary measures shall be envisaged as the economic recovery is losing momentum. The notes have been requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament as an input for the November 2014 session of the Monetary Dialogue between the Members of the ECON Committee and the President of the ECB.

Externý autor

Daniel GROS, Cinzia ALCIDI, Alessandro GIOVANNINI and Diego VALIANTE (Centre for European Policy Studies) ; Stefan COLLIGNON and Carlo MILANI (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna and London School of Economics, Centro Europa Ricerche)

Innovative financial instruments for EU policies

29-08-2013

Unlike pure grants, innovative financial instruments (IFIs) are EU budget tools that trigger equity or debt funding, for example in the form of investments in share capital, loans or guarantees. Financial institutions and intermediaries are often involved in their implementation on behalf of the European Commission (EC). IFIs are not deemed to fit all kinds of public spending, but have features that make them attractive. Notably, they are expected to increase the impact of the EU budget by leveraging ...

Unlike pure grants, innovative financial instruments (IFIs) are EU budget tools that trigger equity or debt funding, for example in the form of investments in share capital, loans or guarantees. Financial institutions and intermediaries are often involved in their implementation on behalf of the European Commission (EC). IFIs are not deemed to fit all kinds of public spending, but have features that make them attractive. Notably, they are expected to increase the impact of the EU budget by leveraging additional funding from other sources. In addition, IFIs generate income through amounts repaid by beneficiaries of funding that can be used for new operations in line with the same policy objectives.

Stability bonds

10-02-2012

Shaken market confidence has dramatically increased borrowing costs for several eurozone countries. As a remedy, the European Commission floated options for the 17 eurozone governments to jointly issue stability bonds, also called eurobonds. However, Germany is concerned that the plan would undermine incentives for fiscal discipline in debt-ridden Member States (MS).

Shaken market confidence has dramatically increased borrowing costs for several eurozone countries. As a remedy, the European Commission floated options for the 17 eurozone governments to jointly issue stability bonds, also called eurobonds. However, Germany is concerned that the plan would undermine incentives for fiscal discipline in debt-ridden Member States (MS).

The ECB, the EFSF and the ESM - Roles, Relationships and Challenges

15-12-2011

The ECB has been an active and vocal institution in the crisis response in the EU. With its non-standard monetary policy operations, it has upheld wide scale emergency support for the banking system. Whatever the final design of the amended EFSF and also ESM may look like, it will have an influence of the role of the ECB. In this compilation of four notes provided by members of the Monetary Expert Panel the roles, relationships and challenges between the ECB, the EFSF and ESM are examined in more ...

The ECB has been an active and vocal institution in the crisis response in the EU. With its non-standard monetary policy operations, it has upheld wide scale emergency support for the banking system. Whatever the final design of the amended EFSF and also ESM may look like, it will have an influence of the role of the ECB. In this compilation of four notes provided by members of the Monetary Expert Panel the roles, relationships and challenges between the ECB, the EFSF and ESM are examined in more detail.

Externý autor

Charles WYPLOSZ, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva Stefan COLLIGNON, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa and Centro Europa Ricerche (CER), Rome Daniel GROS, Director, CEPS and Thomas MAYER Ansgar BELKE, DIW Berlin and University of Duisburg-Essen

Eurobonds : Concepts and Implications - Compilation of Notes for the Monetary Dialogue of March 2011

15-03-2011

The idea of eurobonds has been developed and put forward since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis. This compilation of notes provided by members of the Monetary Experts Panel explains the different concepts and discusses their feasibility, advantages and disadvantages.

The idea of eurobonds has been developed and put forward since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis. This compilation of notes provided by members of the Monetary Experts Panel explains the different concepts and discusses their feasibility, advantages and disadvantages.

Externý autor

Charles WYPLOSZ (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, Switzerland) ; Stefan COLLIGNON (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy) with the assistance of Alessandro CARETTONI, Piero ESPOSITO, Christian A. MONGEAU OSPINA and Rosanna GUALOTTO (Centro Europa Ricerche - CER, Rome, Italy) ; Guillermo DE LA DEHESA (Centre for Economic Policy Research, CEPR) ; Jacques DELPLA (Bruegel) ; Jakob VON WEIZSÄCKER (Thüringer Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Technologie and Bruegel) and Sylvester C.W. EIJFFINGER (CentER and EBC, Tilburg University and CEPR)

Euro Area Governance - Ideas for Crisis Management Reform

15-09-2010

This compilation study tackles the question of euro area and EU governance reform from the perspective of (sovereign) crisis management. It focuses predominantly on crisis mitigation and resolution mechanisms (rather than crisis prevention). The introduction briefly discusses the origins and effects of the crisis for the euro area as well as the whole of EU27. The study goes on to summarize and compare the contributions and to provide a brief legal evaluation and an extensive chronology. The contributions ...

This compilation study tackles the question of euro area and EU governance reform from the perspective of (sovereign) crisis management. It focuses predominantly on crisis mitigation and resolution mechanisms (rather than crisis prevention). The introduction briefly discusses the origins and effects of the crisis for the euro area as well as the whole of EU27. The study goes on to summarize and compare the contributions and to provide a brief legal evaluation and an extensive chronology. The contributions in chapter 2 analyze the impact and future of the crisis management institutions decided in May 2010 - the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as well as the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM). Chapter 3 considers the market impact and institutional design of sovereign default. Chapter 4 looks at commonly issued bonds (Eurobonds). The compilation study is a collection of contributions from practitioners and academics alike.

Externý autor

Chapter 2 – Assessment of Crisis Management in the EU in 2010, the EFSM and EFSF Sony KAPOOR, Managing Director, Re-Define Stefan GERLACH, Professor, Goethe University of Frankfurt Karl WHELAN, Professor, University College Dublin Chapter 3 – Orderly Sovereign Default Kern ALEXANDER, Professor, University of Cambridge Marco LAMANDINI, Professor, University of Bologna Chapter 4 - Eurobonds Alessandro MISSALE, Professor, Universita degli Studi Milano, and Carlo FAVERO, Bocconi University Milan Association of Financial Markets Europe (AFME), London

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