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This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of the latest Commission and Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact and the latest European Commission economic forecasts. This document is regularly updated. This version is an update on a version published in March 2022.

This document presents selected indicators on public finance for the Euro Area Member States and the Euro Area as a whole. For each indicator, it provides a short explanation and the data sources. The final section presents a short overview of the main indicators used by the European and other international institutions to assess debt sustainability.

The process of nominal convergence of non-euro area countries has somewhat deteriorated since 2020, driven by an amplification of pre-existing trends. While the COVID-19 seems to have had limited impact on key indicators, it made the convergence process more challenging. Uncertainty driven by the war in Ukraine is making the inflation criterion more difficult to meet and deteriorating economic prospects. Based on data until April 2022, Croatia meets all legal convergence requirements and nominal ...

This paper provides a summary of recent analyses of the economic, financial and budgetary developments in the EU and the Euro, notably following the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the outbreak of the war. It also highlights related policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate any adverse effects and support sustainable recovery.

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of the latest Commission and Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact and the latest European Commission economic forecasts. This document is regularly updated. This version is an update on a version published in December 2021.

Inflation expectations: quo vadis?

Djupanalys 31-01-2022

Against the backdrop of the recent surge in inflation, we discuss available measures of inflation expectations and implications for monetary policy in the euro area. While long-term expectations are currently still in line with the ECB’s inflation target, the risk of a further rise increases should actual inflation remain high for an extended period of time. If expectations de-anchor the ECB may face difficult trade-offs. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific ...

Most economic decisions of economic agents are based upon expectations of inflation. Inflation expectations play an important role for the determination of inflation and the transmission of monetary policy. They are not observable and are inferred from alternative indicators. We show that all these measures generally fail to predict inflation. We also assess their anchoring and show that long-term expectations are better anchored to the inflation target than inflation expectations at shorter horizons ...

This study is the second research paper in a series of three, commissioned for a PECH Committee Workshop. It applied the MAGNET model to quantify the impact of the EU-UK TCA on fish related sectors. The results show negative impacts on trade, production and consumption of fisheries and aquaculture products for both parties. For the EU, the biggest losses are found in the fish processing sector. The overall impact is driven by increased trade costs whereas the impact of a reduced total allowable catches ...

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of the latest Commission and Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact and the latest European Commission economic forecasts. This document is regularly updated.