Inflation expectations: quo vadis?

In-Depth Analysis 31-01-2022

Against the backdrop of the recent surge in inflation, we discuss available measures of inflation expectations and implications for monetary policy in the euro area. While long-term expectations are currently still in line with the ECB’s inflation target, the risk of a further rise increases should actual inflation remain high for an extended period of time. If expectations de-anchor the ECB may face difficult trade-offs. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 7 February 2022.