When and how to unwind COVID-support measures to the banking system? The quest for safe landing place

Bank loans increased considerably in 2020, due to an unprecedented wave of extraordinary measures aimed at supporting bank borrowers. Where constraints posed by public-sector deficits were tighter, the response was more focused on contingent/fiscally-neutral measures (e.g. public guarantees and moratoria), which might lead to greater unbalances in the future. Post-Covid recovery can be expected to be selective in nature, both across industries and within. Accordingly, emergency measures cannot simply be dismantled, but rather must be replaced by interventions aimed at smoothing the transition towards a different economic environment.