The Ukraine war and energy supply [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Russia’s war on Ukraine has boosted the already high prices of oil and gas in the European Union, posing a question mark over sustainable deliveries of energy to the bloc. The EU is heavily dependent on Russia for its oil and gas. In 2021, two-fifths of the gas Europeans burned came from Russia. More than a quarter of the EU’s imported crude oil came from the country. The European Commission has announced plans to cut the EU’s dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds this year. Meanwhile, Russia has demanded that it is paid for its gas in roubles, rather than in euros or dollars, as stated in the contracts. The G-7 industrialised countries have dismissed the plan. EU Member States are divided over including a ban on energy imports from Russia among sanctions imposed on Moscow. Such an embargo would put a squeeze on European households, probably leading to gas rationing. However, it would cut Russia off from a major source of the hard currency that it uses in part to finance the war. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from international think tanks on the impact of the war on global and European energy markets. Analyses on the Ukraine war and its implications can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.